Are Home Prices About To Be Crushed?
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If you’ve been following real estate news or scrolling through social media lately, you’ve likely encountered two starkly different takes on the housing market:
The Fearful Take: "A massive housing crash is right around the corner—just wait until prices drop!"
The Hopeful Take: "I need prices to crash so I can finally afford a home."
It’s completely understandable why these viewpoints exist. High mortgage rates and elevated home prices have pushed housing affordability to historic lows. But will the market actually crash?
Fannie Mae recently released its Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), polling over 100 housing economists, real estate experts, and market strategists. Their consensus offers a clear picture of what lies ahead through 2030.
The Verdict: Growth, Not a Crash
The consensus among housing experts is clear: national home prices are projected to rise over the next five years, not crash.
Key highlights from the survey data show:
13%–15% Cumulative Growth by 2030: On average, the expert panel projects cumulative national price growth of roughly 13.6% to 14.8% between now and 2030.
2% to 3% Annual Pace: Rather than the rapid, double-digit appreciation seen during the pandemic boom, prices are settling into a steady, moderate pace of around 2%–3% annually.
Even Pessimists Expect Gains: The bottom 20% most pessimistic panel members still forecast cumulative appreciation—projecting prices to rise overall through the end of the decade.
In short: While localized price shifts are bound to happen, a sweeping national housing collapse is simply not in the baseline forecast.
Why Aren't Prices Crashing?
To understand why experts are so confident in continued growth, look at the underlying market fundamentals:
1. Structural Inventory Shortages
The primary driver keeping prices resilient is simple supply and demand. The U.S. spent over a decade under-building single-family homes following the 2008 financial crisis. Combined with millions of current homeowners holding onto low-rate mortgages, the overall supply of homes remains tight.
2. Demographic Demand
The largest demographic cohort in U.S. history—Millennials—is currently in their prime home buying and family-building years. Demand remains strong despite higher interest rates.
3. Record Equity and Strict Lending Standard
Unlike the mid-2000s subprime crisis, modern lending standards are strict. Today’s homeowners hold record levels of home equity, meaning forced liquidations and foreclosures are rare.
The Local Factor: "National Average" Doesn't Mean "Every ZIP Code"
Sun Belt vs. Midwest: Markets in parts of the Sun Belt (like Texas and Florida) that saw massive construction booms are experiencing inventory increases and price stabilization or mild corrections. Meanwhile, steady, affordable Midwest markets are outperforming national appreciation averages.
Micro-Market Differences: Neighborhood-level demand, school districts, and local job growth will dictate whether a specific area moves faster or slower than the national average.
What Does This Mean for You?
If You’re Looking to Buy
Waiting for a 2008-style crash to clear out high prices could cost you more over the long run. Even modest annual appreciation of 2%–3% adds tens of thousands of dollars to the purchase price of a home by 2030. Entering the market with less competition, negotiating seller concessions, and planning to refinance if rates drop is becoming a primary strategy for buyers today.
If You’re Looking to Sell
You don’t need to rush out of fear that your equity is about to vanish. However, the era of listing a home for an inflated price and receiving dozen cash offers in 24 hours is over. Proper pricing, staging, and local strategy are essential to secure a buyer.
Planning Your Next Move?
National forecasts offer a helpful high-level guide, but your specific neighborhood numbers tell the real story. If you want to know what ho
me values, inventory, and buyer demand look like in your ZIP code, let's connect today!
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Think You're Smart?
Done...What Most Religions Don't Tell You About The Bible
Cary Schmidt's Introduction of Done
Don't Worry About Dying...You Will Live Forever...
It's All About Location, Location, Location!
God gave His only begotten Son Jesus Christ for us to be saved from this sinful world. Time is at Hand and while it is not too late, secure your salvation.
If you don’t know how to secure salvation, this simple easy to follow “ABCs of Salvation” will guide you on how to accept genuinely Jesus Christ as your Lord and personal Savior to secure salvation for you to surely go to Heaven.
But before going through the steps you might ask: Why do I need to Secure Salvation? And why do I need to go to heaven? This because:
You might be wealthy but it cannot be exchanged for your soul.
Whatever you have here on earth, they are nothing and there is no forever on Earth.
Kingdom of Heaven is more valuable than anything else.
It is appointed that we will die physicaly and we will be judged (Hebrews 9:27).
You only have two destinations: Heaven or Hell
Hell has no exit and Heaven has only one door – Jesus
So how to secure salvation?
A – ADMIT that you are a Sinner
B – BELIEVE on the Lord Jesus Christ
C – CONFESS with your mouth
D – DEPART from evil
A – ADMIT that you are a Sinner
We all have sinned.
17 For if by one man’s offence death reigned by one; much more they which receive abundance of grace and of the gift of righteousness shall reign in life by one, Jesus Christ.) 18 Therefore as by the offence of one judgment came upon all men to condemnation; even so by the righteousness of one the free gift came upon all men unto justification of life.
19 For as by one man’s disobedience many were made sinners, so by the obedience of one shall many be made righteous.
20 Moreover the law entered, that the offence might abound. But where sin abounded, grace did much more abound:
21That as sin hath reigned unto death, even so might grace reign through righteousness unto eternal life by Jesus Christ our Lord.
And no matter how you try to be good, you will still fail.
For all have sinned, and come short of the glory of God;Romans 3:23 KJV
You are still unclean.
But we are all as an unclean thing, and all our righteousnesses are as filthy rags; and we all do fade as a leaf; and our iniquities, like the wind, have taken us away.Isaiah 64:6 KJV
B – BELIEVE on the Lord Jesus Christ
God gave His only begotten Son Jesus Christ to save us. And through His blood, our sins washed away.
For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.John 3:16 KJV
Only by His grace and not by works.
8 For by grace are ye saved through faith; and that not of yourselves: it is the gift of God: 9 Not of works, lest any man should boast. 10 For we are his workmanship, created in Christ Jesus unto good works, which God hath before ordained that we should walk in them.Ephesians 2:8-10 KJV
There is no other way but only through Jesus Christ alone.
Jesus saith unto him, I am the way, the truth, and the life: no man cometh unto the Father, but by me.John 14:6 KJV
God commended His love toward us.
But God commendeth his love toward us, in that, while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us.Romans 5:8 KJV
If we have Jesus Christ living in us, we will live eternally.
He that hath the Son hath life; and he that hath not the Son of God hath not life.1 John 5:12 KJV
In the power of our Lord Jesus Christ.For I verily, as absent in body, but present in spirit, have judged already, as though I were present, concerning him that hath so done this deed, In the name of our Lord Jesus Christ, when ye are gathered together, and my spirit, with the power of our Lord Jesus Christ, To deliver such an one unto Satan for the destruction of the flesh, that the spirit may be saved in the day of the Lord Jesus.1 Corinthians 5:3-5 KJV
By the blood of our Savior Jesus Christ
Not by works of righteousness which we have done, but according to his mercy he saved us, by the washing of regeneration, and renewing of the Holy Ghost; Which he shed on us abundantly through Jesus Christ our Saviour; That being justified by his grace, we should be made heirs according to the hope of eternal life.Titus 3:5-7 KJV
C – CONFESS with your mouth
Now that you accepted that you are a sinner and believe in the Lord Jesus Christ, confess with your mouth your sins and that you believe in Him. Let Him come to you and accept Him as your Lord and personal Savior.
If we confess our sins, he is faithful and just to forgive us our sins, and to cleanse us from all unrighteousness.1 John 1:9 KJV
9 That if thou shalt confess with thy mouth the Lord Jesus, and shalt believe in thine heart that God hath raised him from the dead, thou shalt be saved. 10 For with the heart man believeth unto righteousness; and with the mouth confession is made unto salvation.11 For the scripture saith, Whosoever believeth on him shall not be ashamed. Romans 10:9-11 KJV
Now do the Sinner’s Prayer:
Holy, thoughtful, gracious, and Heavenly Father, I recognize and acknowledge I am a miscreant not deserving of your grace and I ask forgiveness of my sins. I know your son is the truth the light and the way, I give myself freely to His control and welcome him into my heart. I ask you to walk with me and guide me, teach me your way and your truth. Thank you for the gift of your Son’s sacrifice on the cross that I may live. Thank you for your forgiveness and for accepting me as your child. Amen.
Now that you are saved and you have Jesus Christ living in you, you should not stop there. What is next? Follow Him, His words, submit yourself, and don’t forget to
D – DEPART from evil
This is not part of the step to secure salvation but it is a way of proving yourself that you are now truly of Christ. Forget your past and follow Him.
Depart from evil, and do good; seek peace, and pursue it.Psalms 34:14 KJV
Therefore if any man be in Christ, he is a new creature: old things are passed away; behold, all things are become new.2 Corinthians 5:17 KJV
(For he saith, I have heard thee in a time accepted, and in the day of salvation have I succoured thee: behold, now is the accepted time; behold, now is the day of salvation.) 2 Corinthians 6:2 KJV
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This article provides information and opinions but is not meant as investment advice. Skip Geiser LLC, Charles "Skip" Geiser, Plum Tree Real Estate Marketing or Rob Brooks Realty does not assure the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions presented here. It is important to conduct your own research, due diligence, and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. Skip Geiser LLC, Charles "Skip" Geiser, Plum Tree Real Estate Marketing or Rob Brooks Realty is not responsible for any loss or damage resulting from relying on the information or opinions in this article
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