Housing Inventory = "The Market"?
- Charles "Skip" Geiser
- Jun 29
- 8 min read
You've probably heard that home prices are cooling off. And that's true – nationally.
But zoom in on our local market, and the picture can look completely different depending on the day and the local area you are living in.
Some areas are still seeing solid price growth. Others have gone flat. A few have actually dipped slightly negative. So, what's causing all of that variation?
It All Comes Down to Inventory
Here's the simple version:
When there are more homes for sale, buyers have options.
More options, means less competition.
Less competition means sellers can't push prices as high.
On the flip side, when inventory is tight, buyers are competing over a small pool of homes, and that pushes prices up.
That dynamic is playing out right now in a really visible way across the country.
Markets where inventory has climbed back to, or above, normal pre-pandemic levels are seeing prices flatten or fall slightly. Markets where inventory is still well below those 2019 benchmarks are still seeing prices rise. As Lance Lambert, CEO of ResiClub, puts it:
"Home prices are still climbing a little year-over-year in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic 2019 levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest.In contrast, some pockets in states like Texas, Florida, and Colorado — where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels by a solid clip — are seeing modest home price pullbacks or flat pricing."
The Maps Say It All
Take a look at where inventory stands today compared to 2019. In most places (the states in gray below), inventory still falls short of where we were back then. And that’s exactly why prices are climbing, albeit moderately, in the vast majority of states.
But you’re probably more interested in where prices are falling a bit, since that’s what is making headlines. So, let’s prove out how much inventory affects prices in those spots.
According to Realtor.com, 15 states and Washington, D.C. are now back above pre-pandemic inventory levels, and some by a wide margin (see the orange in the map below):
Now, let’s look at the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data to see what's happened to home prices in those same states over the past year (again, you’ll want to focus on the orange in the next map).
See how those line up pretty closely with the areas seeing more homes for sale today?
The overlap isn't a coincidence. It's cause and effect.
The national average of 1.7% price growth is accurate, but it's an average of two very different stories happening at the same time – the few areas experiencing mild declines and the overwhelming majority that are still seeing prices rise.
What This Means If You’re Buying or Selling
If you're a buyer, the market you're shopping in matters a lot right now. In places like Texas, Colorado, or Florida, you may have real negotiating power – more choices, less competition, and sellers who are more motivated to make a deal. In tighter markets like much of the Northeast, you're still likely facing a lot of competition.
If you're a seller, pricing strategy is everything. In markets where inventory has risen, overpricing is one of the fastest ways to linger on the market and eventually sell for less than you would have with the right price from day one. In markets where inventory is still low, you're in a strong spot, but getting your price right still matters if you want to attract serious buyers quickly. Either way, that's where a local real estate agent earns their keep.
Bottom Line
When it comes to prices, where you are matters more than ever right now, and a local real estate agent is the best person to help you make sense of it.
Reach out today and let's build a plan that fits this market.
Today's Active Homes For Sale
In Escambia & Santa Rosa Counties
2955 ^ (19)
Low $39,000 - High $6,500,000
Above $600,000
601 ^ (11)
$500,000 - $599,999
201 v (3)
$400,000 - $499,999
399 ^ (10)
$300,000 - $399,999
784 ^ (9)
$200,000 - $299,999
656 v (3)
$100,000 - $199,999
280 v (5)
Under $99,999
34 (0)
RED is UP Black Remained the Same Green is DOWN
Current Mortgage Rate
30 YR Fixed 6.53% (-.00%) 15 YR Fixed 6.10% (-.00%)
Current Realtor Membership
3049 ^ (2) Agents (Pensacola Assioation of Realtors)
Current Mortgage Rates
Florida
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Alabama
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Think You're Smart?
Done...What Most Religions Don't Tell You About The Bible
Cary Schmidt's Introduction of Done
Don't Worry About Dying...You Will Live Forever...
It's All About Location, Location, Location!
God gave His only begotten Son Jesus Christ for us to be saved from this sinful world. Time is at Hand and while it is not too late, secure your salvation.
If you don’t know how to secure salvation, this simple easy to follow “ABCs of Salvation” will guide you on how to accept genuinely Jesus Christ as your Lord and personal Savior to secure salvation for you to surely go to Heaven.
But before going through the steps you might ask: Why do I need to Secure Salvation? And why do I need to go to heaven? This because:
You might be wealthy but it cannot be exchanged for your soul.
Whatever you have here on earth, they are nothing and there is no forever on Earth.
Kingdom of Heaven is more valuable than anything else.
It is appointed that we will die physicaly and we will be judged (Hebrews 9:27).
You only have two destinations: Heaven or Hell
Hell has no exit and Heaven has only one door – Jesus
So how to secure salvation?
A – ADMIT that you are a Sinner
B – BELIEVE on the Lord Jesus Christ
C – CONFESS with your mouth
D – DEPART from evil
A – ADMIT that you are a Sinner
We all have sinned.
17 For if by one man’s offence death reigned by one; much more they which receive abundance of grace and of the gift of righteousness shall reign in life by one, Jesus Christ.) 18 Therefore as by the offence of one judgment came upon all men to condemnation; even so by the righteousness of one the free gift came upon all men unto justification of life.
19 For as by one man’s disobedience many were made sinners, so by the obedience of one shall many be made righteous.
20 Moreover the law entered, that the offence might abound. But where sin abounded, grace did much more abound:
21That as sin hath reigned unto death, even so might grace reign through righteousness unto eternal life by Jesus Christ our Lord.
And no matter how you try to be good, you will still fail.
For all have sinned, and come short of the glory of God;Romans 3:23 KJV
You are still unclean.
But we are all as an unclean thing, and all our righteousnesses are as filthy rags; and we all do fade as a leaf; and our iniquities, like the wind, have taken us away.Isaiah 64:6 KJV
B – BELIEVE on the Lord Jesus Christ
God gave His only begotten Son Jesus Christ to save us. And through His blood, our sins washed away.
For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.John 3:16 KJV
Only by His grace and not by works.
8 For by grace are ye saved through faith; and that not of yourselves: it is the gift of God: 9 Not of works, lest any man should boast. 10 For we are his workmanship, created in Christ Jesus unto good works, which God hath before ordained that we should walk in them.Ephesians 2:8-10 KJV
There is no other way but only through Jesus Christ alone.
Jesus saith unto him, I am the way, the truth, and the life: no man cometh unto the Father, but by me.John 14:6 KJV
God commended His love toward us.
But God commendeth his love toward us, in that, while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us.Romans 5:8 KJV
If we have Jesus Christ living in us, we will live eternally.
He that hath the Son hath life; and he that hath not the Son of God hath not life.1 John 5:12 KJV
In the power of our Lord Jesus Christ.For I verily, as absent in body, but present in spirit, have judged already, as though I were present, concerning him that hath so done this deed, In the name of our Lord Jesus Christ, when ye are gathered together, and my spirit, with the power of our Lord Jesus Christ, To deliver such an one unto Satan for the destruction of the flesh, that the spirit may be saved in the day of the Lord Jesus.1 Corinthians 5:3-5 KJV
By the blood of our Savior Jesus Christ
Not by works of righteousness which we have done, but according to his mercy he saved us, by the washing of regeneration, and renewing of the Holy Ghost; Which he shed on us abundantly through Jesus Christ our Saviour; That being justified by his grace, we should be made heirs according to the hope of eternal life.Titus 3:5-7 KJV
C – CONFESS with your mouth
Now that you accepted that you are a sinner and believe in the Lord Jesus Christ, confess with your mouth your sins and that you believe in Him. Let Him come to you and accept Him as your Lord and personal Savior.
If we confess our sins, he is faithful and just to forgive us our sins, and to cleanse us from all unrighteousness.1 John 1:9 KJV
9 That if thou shalt confess with thy mouth the Lord Jesus, and shalt believe in thine heart that God hath raised him from the dead, thou shalt be saved. 10 For with the heart man believeth unto righteousness; and with the mouth confession is made unto salvation.11 For the scripture saith, Whosoever believeth on him shall not be ashamed. Romans 10:9-11 KJV
Now do the Sinner’s Prayer:
Holy, thoughtful, gracious, and Heavenly Father, I recognize and acknowledge I am a miscreant not deserving of your grace and I ask forgiveness of my sins. I know your son is the truth the light and the way, I give myself freely to His control and welcome him into my heart. I ask you to walk with me and guide me, teach me your way and your truth. Thank you for the gift of your Son’s sacrifice on the cross that I may live. Thank you for your forgiveness and for accepting me as your child. Amen.
Now that you are saved and you have Jesus Christ living in you, you should not stop there. What is next? Follow Him, His words, submit yourself, and don’t forget to
D – DEPART from evil
This is not part of the step to secure salvation but it is a way of proving yourself that you are now truly of Christ. Forget your past and follow Him.
Depart from evil, and do good; seek peace, and pursue it.Psalms 34:14 KJV
Therefore if any man be in Christ, he is a new creature: old things are passed away; behold, all things are become new.2 Corinthians 5:17 KJV
(For he saith, I have heard thee in a time accepted, and in the day of salvation have I succoured thee: behold, now is the accepted time; behold, now is the day of salvation.) 2 Corinthians 6:2 KJV
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This article provides information and opinions but is not meant as investment advice. Skip Geiser LLC, Charles "Skip" Geiser, Plum Tree Real Estate Marketing or Rob Brooks Realty does not assure the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions presented here. It is important to conduct your own research, due diligence, and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. Skip Geiser LLC, Charles "Skip" Geiser, Plum Tree Real Estate Marketing or Rob Brooks Realty is not responsible for any loss or damage resulting from relying on the information or opinions in this article.
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