What About All This New Home Inventory?
- Charles "Skip" Geiser
- Aug 28
- 7 min read
You may have seen talk online that new home inventory is at its highest level since the crash. And if you lived through the crash back in 2008, seeing new construction is up again may feel a little scary.
But here’s what you need to remember: a lot of what you see online is designed to get clicks. So, you may not be getting the full story. A closer look at the data and a little expert insight can change your perspective completely.
Why This Isn’t Like 2008
While it’s true the number of new homes on the market hit its highest level since the crash, that’s not a reason to worry. That’s because new builds are just one piece of the puzzle. They don’t tell the full story of what’s happening today.
To get the real picture of how much inventory we have and how it compares to the surplus we saw back then, you’ve got to look at both new homes and existing homes (homes that were lived in by a previous owner).
When you combine those two numbers, it’s clear overall supply looks very different today than it did around the crash (see graph below):
So, saying we’re near 2008 levels for new construction isn't the same as the inventory surplus we did the last time.
Builders Have Actually Underbuilt for Over a Decade
And here’s some other important perspective you’re not going to get from those headlines. After the 2008 crash, builders slammed on the brakes. For 15 years, they didn’t build enough homes to keep up with demand. That long stretch of underbuilding created a major housing shortage, which we’re still dealing with today.
The graph below uses Census data to show the overbuilding leading up to the crash (in red), and the period of under-building that followed (in orange):
Basically, we had more than 15 straight years of underbuilding – and we’re only recently starting to slowly climb out of that hole. But there’s still a long way to go (even with the growth we’ve seen lately). Experts at Realtor.com say it would roughly 7.5 years to build enough homes to close the gap.
Of course, like anything else in real estate, the level of supply and demand is going to vary by market. Some markets may have more homes for sale, some less. But nationally, this isn’t like the last time.
Bottom Line
Just because there are more new homes for sale right now, it doesn’t mean we’re headed for a crash. The data shows today’s overall inventory situation is different.
If you have questions or want to talk about what builders are doing in our area, let’s connect.Want to find out what the market looks like where you’re buying? Let’s connect.
Today's Pensacola Realtors MLS Information Today's Active Homes For Sale Escambia and Santa Rosa County 3194 v (36) Above $600,000 670 v (3) Between $500,000 - $599,999 199 v (1) Between $400,000 - $499,999 374 v (2) Between $300,000 - $399,999 866 v (16) Between $200,000 - $299,999 768 v (9) Between $100,000 - $199,999 279 v (4) Under $99,999 39 ^ (1) RED is UP Black Remained the Same Green is DOWN Current Mortgage Rate 30 YR Fixed 6.51% (-01%) 15 YR Fixed 5.88% (-.02%) |
Current Mortgage Rates
Florida
SkipSOLDMyHome.com with
Plum Tree Real Estate Marketing
850.221.6442
Alabama
SkipSOLDMyHome.com with
Rob Brooks Realty
850.221.6442
Think Your Smart?
Done...What Most Religions Don't Tell You About The Bible
Cary Schmidt's Introduction of Done  |
Time is Short...
God gave His only begotten Son Jesus Christ for us to be saved from this sinful world. Time is at Hand and while it is not too late, secure your salvation. If you don’t know how to secure salvation, this simple easy to follow “ABCs of Salvation” will guide you on how to accept genuinely Jesus Christ as your Lord and personal Savior to secure salvation for you to surely go to Heaven. But before going through the steps you might ask: Why do I need to Secure Salvation? And why do I need to go to heaven? This because:
So how to secure salvation?
A – ADMIT that you are a SinnerWe all have sinned.
19 For as by one man’s disobedience many were made sinners, so by the obedience of one shall many be made righteous. 20 Moreover the law entered, that the offence might abound. But where sin abounded, grace did much more abound: 21That as sin hath reigned unto death, even so might grace reign through righteousness unto eternal life by Jesus Christ our Lord. And no matter how you try to be good, you will still fail.
You are still unclean.
B – BELIEVE on the Lord Jesus ChristGod gave His only begotten Son Jesus Christ to save us. And through His blood, our sins washed away.
Only by His grace and not by works.
There is no other way but only through Jesus Christ alone.
God commended His love toward us.
If we have Jesus Christ living in us, we will live eternally.
By the blood of our Savior Jesus Christ
C – CONFESS with your mouthNow that you accepted that you are a sinner and believe in the Lord Jesus Christ, confess with your mouth your sins and that you believe in Him. Let Him come to you and accept Him as your Lord and personal Savior.
Now do the Sinner’s Prayer: Holy, thoughtful, gracious, and Heavenly Father, I recognize and acknowledge I am a miscreant not deserving of your grace and I ask forgiveness of my sins. I know your son is the truth the light and the way, I give myself freely to His control and welcome him into my heart. I ask you to walk with me and guide me, teach me your way and your truth. Thank you for the gift of your Son’s sacrifice on the cross that I may live. Thank you for your forgiveness and for accepting me as your child. Amen. Now that you are saved and you have Jesus Christ living in you, you should not stop there. What is next? Follow Him, His words, submit yourself, and don’t forget to D – DEPART from evilThis is not part of the step to secure salvation but it is a way of proving yourself that you are now truly of Christ. Forget your past and follow Him.
|
My Church
(Come Grow With Us)
5801 N Century Blvd, Century, FL 32535
Missionary Brother Ricky
This article provides information and opinions but is not meant as investment advice. Skip Geiser LLC, Charles "Skip" Geiser or Plum Tree Real Estate Marketing does not assure the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions presented here. It is important to conduct your own research, due diligence, and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. Skip Geiser LLC, Charles "Skip" Geiser or Plum Tree Real Estate Marketing is not responsible for any loss or damage resulting from relying on the information or opinions in this article.
Comments